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This week’s Charles Schwab Challenge has turned into a microcosm for 2022: Scottie Scheffler is leading and everyone else is chasing him. Scheffler will seek his fifth win of the year at Colonial Country Club on Sunday after blasting a 2-under 68 on Saturday, giving him a two-shot lead over Brendon Todd and Scott Stallings.
It didn’t look like that would be the case for most of the day. Scheffler got off to a tepid start with 8- and 6-foot par putts on the first two holes, and he shot a steady par 35 down the front before rolling onto his back. He shagged the first two on that side and closed with another on the last to secure a spot in Sunday afternoon’s final pairing.
That’s not unusual for Scheffler this season, but it is is a different experience than he has traditionally had on this golf course. Colonial isn’t exactly tailor-made for the reigning Masters champion – he hasn’t made the top 50 in two starts here – but his lead is no fluke. Scheffler leads the field from tee to green, and while he’s articulated it well so far, it wasn’t a perennial for the first three laps. In other words, that lead is tenable on Sunday given the distance between Scheffler and a fairly average chasing group and his wonderful shots on the golf ball.
Let’s take a closer look at what’s at stake with Scheffler in Fort Worth on Sunday as he looks to continue what has been an absolutely dream season so far.
the leader
1. Scottie Scheffler (-11): Scheffler was out of the picture for two short days in Southern Hills a week ago when he missed the cut at the PGA Championship, but other than that slip-up, he completely owned the season. His last two months have been almost comical. He followed a win at the Phoenix Open with a T7 at the Genesis Invitational and another win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He finished T55 at The Players before two more wins at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play and of course the Masters. His T15 at AT&T Byron Nelson felt like a complete failure, which should tell you what level he played at. Throw in another win on Sunday and a career heat suddenly becomes one of the great seasons of the last four decades.
If he also wins the $1.5 million first prize, it will be the second richest season in PGA Tour history, behind only Jordan Spieth’s 2014-15 season, where he made just over $12 million earned. By the way: The season still lasts three months.
Other contenders
T2. Scott Stallings, Brendon Todd (-9)
4. Harald Varner III (-8)
T5. John Huh, Cam Davis, Chris Kirk, Patrick Reed (-7)
Like I said, the Chase Pack isn’t elite. Each of these guys is, of course, capable of winning a PGA Tour event, but none of them are going to scare Scheffler much. Todd actually blew the day’s round on Saturday by two shots over the rest of the field, and he did all his damage on the front nine on the course. If anything, that proved there was a number out there for players to shoot, but the chances of one of the golfers at the top of the board doing so and catching Scheffler at the same time aren’t high. Data Golf gives Scheffler a 55% chance to win this tournament.
Mito… again
Mito Pereira was the tragic figure of the past week. He doubled the last hole of the PGA Championship when a par would have won it and a bogey would have put him in a playoff. However, Pereira has coped quite well after that which has garnered him many fans and they now have the opportunity to draw for their man on Sunday. Pereira is five behind Scheffler but just three adrift of second as he will be looking to do in this ranking what Justin Thomas did to him a week ago: come back from wide behind and pick up a win.
Updated odds and tips
Here’s a look at the new odds after 54 holes via Caesars Sportsbook.
- Scottie Scheffler: -140
- Brendon Todd: 7-1
- Scott Stallings: 9-1
- Harald Varner III: 10-1
- Patrick Reed: 22-1
- Chris Kirk: 22-1
- Cam Davis: 35-1
It’s hard to know what to do with it. Scheffler’s number isn’t great, but I’m pretty confident he’ll win the tournament and I don’t really trust the guys right behind him unless they double their number. I figured I’d grab a flyer on Reed or Kirk at 22-1 or Cam Davis at 35-1 and see if it goes like it did last Sunday (it won’t, but that’s probably the game here).
