4 expert outright picks for Matt Fitzpatrick, Max Homa and more


Click the arrow to expand PGA Championship 2022 Odds via PointsBet

Odds for the PGA Championship 2022

golfer opportunities
Scottie Scheffler +1200
Jon Rahm +1300
JustinThomas +1400
Rory McIlroy +1600
Jordan Spieth +1700
Collin Morikawa +2000
Patrick Cantley +2200
CameronSmith +2200
DustinJohnson +2500
Hideki Matsuyama +2500
Victor Howland +2500
Xander Schauffele +2500
Shane Lowry +3000
Will Zalatoris +3300
Brooks Kopka +4000
Joaquin Niemann +4000
Sam Burns +4500
Corey Conners +5000
Daniel Berger +5000
Matthew Fitzpatrick +5000
Tony Finau +5000
Max Homa +6000
Louis Osthuizen +6600
Tyrell Hatton +6600
Adam Scott +7000
Jason day +7000
Tiger Woods +7000
Tommy Fleetwood +7000
Cameron Young +8000
Billy Horschel +9000
Bryson DeChambeau +9000
Keegan Bradley +9000
Abraham Ancer +10000
Jason Kokrak +10000
Russell Henley +10000
Seamu’s power +10000
Talor Gooch +10000
Cameron Champ +12500
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +12500
Gary Woodland +12500
Harold Varner III +12500
JustinRose +12500
Marc Leishman +12500
Maverick McNealy +12500
Patrick Reed +12500
Sebastian Munoz +12500
Sergio Garcia +12500
Thomas Pieter +12500
Webb Simpson +12500
Aaron Wise +15000
Alexander Noren +15000
Davis Riley +15000
Matt Kuchar +15000
Mito Guillermo Pereira +15000
Robert MacIntyre +15000
Si Woo Kim +15000
Matthew Wolff +17500
Ricky Fowler +17500
Tom Höge +17500
Adam Hadwin +20000
Brian Harman +20000
Bubba Watson +20000
Charl Schwarzel +20000
Chris Kirk +20000
Eric van Rooyen +20000
Ian Poulter +20000
Jonathan Vegas +20000
Keith Mitchell +20000
Kevin Kisner +20000
Kevin Well +20000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +20000
Luke’s list +20000
Matthew Jones +20000
Ryan Palmer +20000
Sepp Straka +20000
Joel Dahmen +20000
Anirban Lahiri +25000
Bernd Wiesberger +25000
Cameron Davis +25000
JJ Spaun +25000
Joo Hyung Kim +25000
Lanto Griffin +25000
Russel Knox +25000
Sam Horsfield +25000
Troy Merritt +25000
Branden Grace +30000
Brendan Steele +30000
Francesco Molinari +30000
Justin Harding +30000
Laurie Canter +30000
Lee Westwood +30000
Min Woo Lee +30000
Pablo Larrazabal +30000
Ryan Fox +30000
Stewart Cink +30000
Scott Stallings +30000
Cameron Tringale +35000
Carlos Ortiz +35000
Luke Herbert +35000
Mackenzie Hughes +35000
Oliver Becker +35000
Patton Kizzire +35000
Adam Schenk +40000
Adrian Arnaus +40000
Chad Ramey +40000
Dean Burmester +40000
Kevin Streelman +40000
Nicolai Hojgaard +40000
Rikuya Hoshino +40000
Alex Beach +50000
Alex Cejka +50000
Austin injured +50000
Beau Hoessler +50000
Bio Kim +50000
Brandon Bingaman +50000
Casey Pyne +50000
Chan Kim +50000
Colin Inglis +50000
Daniel van Tonder +50000
Dylan Newman +50000
Garrick Higgo +50000
Harry Higgs +50000
Henrik Stenson +50000
Hudson Swafford +50000
Jared Jones +50000
Jason Dufner +50000
Jesse Mueller +50000
Jinichiro Kozuma +50000
John Daly +50000
Kramer Hickok +50000
Kyle Mendoza +50000
Martin Kaymer +50000
Matthew Borchert +50000
Michael Block +50000
Nick Ishee +50000
Padraig Harrington +50000
Paul Dickinson +50000
Rich Beem +50000
Richard Bland +50000
Ryan Brehm +50000
Ryan Vermeer +50000
Ryōsuke Kinoshita +50000
Sadom Kaevkanjana +50000
Sean McCarty +50000
ShaunMichael +50000
Shaun Norris +50000
Shawn Warren +50000
Takumi Kanaya +50000
Tim Feenstra +50000
Tyler Collet +50000
Wyatt Worthington +50000
Yong Eun Yang +50000

There is not much to report from the Bryon Nelson. All bets made the cut, but none were ever in contention. Davis Riley gave a brief glimmer of hope that he might make the top five, but cooled off in the back nine and finished ninth.

Now for the second major of the season, Southern Hills will host the PGA Championship.

It’s the first time we’ve seen the PGA at this location in 15 years. Last time it was here, Tiger Woods held off Woody Austin and Ernie Els to capture the title.

Of course

Southern Hills will play 7,556 yards for a par 70, about 400 yards longer than when Woods won in 2007.

We will see water play a role on 15 holes so precision is key both off the tee and with the irons. Length will be an advantage as always, but much of that advantage will come into play on the par 5s. Both are set to play well over 600 yards, limiting the number of players who will legitimately be able to get two. The par 4s are fairly short by recent major championship standards, with seven sets designed to play under 450 yards and only one was over 500 yards on the original scorecard.

Weather, mainly wind, could come into play fairly frequently with gusts over 20mph. Early forecasts are that late Thursday and early Friday may catch the worst, but we all know how the weather can fluctuate throughout the week.

The favourites

At the top we have Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm opening between +1000 and +1200 on various sportsbooks. Scheffler has four wins in the past three months, while Rahm finally got on the board in his last start in Mexico this season.

In this range from +1400 to +1800 we see Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa and Dustin Johnson. Spieth will be popular in this area. He won at Harbor Town and was runner-up at AT&T Byron Nelson, so the form is there. McIlroy finished second at Augusta and followed that up with a fifth place finish at Wells Fargo two weeks ago.

Of this group, however, this could be best set up for Morikawa. He finished fifth at Augusta and won seven shots on the approach to Harbor Town. If this ends up playing a little tighter due to rough, creek and wind, he’s the elite guy that I think would do best.

In the +2000s we have Cameron Smith, Brooks Koepka, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay. Hovland will be popular after playing collegiate golf in Oklahoma, but with plenty of run-offs around the greens we’ll see how the short game holds up for him. Schauffele and Cantlay took victory in Zurich and Schauffele followed with a hot weekend to finish in the top five at the Byron Nelson.

We haven’t seen Smith for a few weeks since Zurich, and he hasn’t appeared on the leaderboards since Augusta. However, he and Scheffler, along with Shane Lowry, are already in much larger numbers on this week’s betting map. At the current prices I would not recommend them.

The middle school

I open here with Max Homa under +6600 on BetMGM. He was added to my map at +9000 when he entered competition at Wells Fargo, but I still like him here. The ball shot has been dialed in for a few months. He gained 10 strokes in his win two weeks ago. He has had five more top 20 finishes in 2022 and also had a win in the fall.

With three wins in the last 15 months, Homa is becoming one of the better players in the game as he nears the top of the leaderboard. We haven’t seen him in a field of this caliber, but he’s won at Riviera and Quail Hollow, which have held majors in the past. This shows that Homa is capable of making it in such places.

We go too Matt Fitzpatrick at +4500. He’s played well all season, finishing in the top 20 in seven places in his nine starts in 2022. Better form was associated with better ball hits. He gains off the tee and continues to gain ground on the approach. He used to be slightly above average in both areas and rode his short game. His short game is still solid, but he now ranks within the top 25 in all four won categories. He has become a more versatile player and that has produced strong results.

The long shots

I have two names here, but let’s start with that Keegan Bradley below +12500 on WynnBet. Wherever a full tee-to-green game is required and where the win is likely to land at 10-under, Bradley can be a factor. He’s finished 11th or better in five of his last seven starts, so the form is there. The reason it was better is because of an uptrend in the short game. He’s now winning shots around the green almost every week and has been above average with the putter in three of his last five starts.

I will too Davis Riley at 200-1 on WynnBet. This is probably more of a top 20 game but its form is really good. He finished ninth last week and has placed in the top 10 in four of his last six starts. He’s had a hot short game in many of those results, but at the Byron Nelson he’s been able to gain ground in all four categories – a promising sign for the Rookie who secured a Tour card for next season.

It doesn’t take much for me to bet on Riley, but like last week I think this could be a point where he’s playing better than the odds suggest.

With my betting in the months leading up to this event, the outrights for the week are pretty much complete. From here we’ll focus on props as they become available and see if anything else catches our eye.

The PGA Championship Card

  • Matthew Fitzpatrick +4500 (0.66 units)
  • Max Homa +6600 (0.5 units)
  • Keegan Bradley +12500 (0.3 units)
  • Davis Riley +20000 (0.1 units)

Total bet: 1.56 units

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