Click the arrow to expand PGA Championship 2022 Odds via PointsBet
Odds for the PGA Championship 2022
|Harold Varner III||+12500|
|Mito Guillermo Pereira||+15000|
|Si Woo Kim||+15000|
|Eric van Rooyen||+20000|
|Joo Hyung Kim||+25000|
|Min Woo Lee||+30000|
|Daniel van Tonder||+50000|
|Yong Eun Yang||+50000|
There is not much to report from the Bryon Nelson. All bets made the cut, but none were ever in contention. Davis Riley gave a brief glimmer of hope that he might make the top five, but cooled off in the back nine and finished ninth.
Now for the second major of the season, Southern Hills will host the PGA Championship.
It’s the first time we’ve seen the PGA at this location in 15 years. Last time it was here, Tiger Woods held off Woody Austin and Ernie Els to capture the title.
Southern Hills will play 7,556 yards for a par 70, about 400 yards longer than when Woods won in 2007.
We will see water play a role on 15 holes so precision is key both off the tee and with the irons. Length will be an advantage as always, but much of that advantage will come into play on the par 5s. Both are set to play well over 600 yards, limiting the number of players who will legitimately be able to get two. The par 4s are fairly short by recent major championship standards, with seven sets designed to play under 450 yards and only one was over 500 yards on the original scorecard.
Weather, mainly wind, could come into play fairly frequently with gusts over 20mph. Early forecasts are that late Thursday and early Friday may catch the worst, but we all know how the weather can fluctuate throughout the week.
At the top we have Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm opening between +1000 and +1200 on various sportsbooks. Scheffler has four wins in the past three months, while Rahm finally got on the board in his last start in Mexico this season.
In this range from +1400 to +1800 we see Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa and Dustin Johnson. Spieth will be popular in this area. He won at Harbor Town and was runner-up at AT&T Byron Nelson, so the form is there. McIlroy finished second at Augusta and followed that up with a fifth place finish at Wells Fargo two weeks ago.
Of this group, however, this could be best set up for Morikawa. He finished fifth at Augusta and won seven shots on the approach to Harbor Town. If this ends up playing a little tighter due to rough, creek and wind, he’s the elite guy that I think would do best.
In the +2000s we have Cameron Smith, Brooks Koepka, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay. Hovland will be popular after playing collegiate golf in Oklahoma, but with plenty of run-offs around the greens we’ll see how the short game holds up for him. Schauffele and Cantlay took victory in Zurich and Schauffele followed with a hot weekend to finish in the top five at the Byron Nelson.
We haven’t seen Smith for a few weeks since Zurich, and he hasn’t appeared on the leaderboards since Augusta. However, he and Scheffler, along with Shane Lowry, are already in much larger numbers on this week’s betting map. At the current prices I would not recommend them.
The middle school
I open here with Max Homa under +6600 on BetMGM. He was added to my map at +9000 when he entered competition at Wells Fargo, but I still like him here. The ball shot has been dialed in for a few months. He gained 10 strokes in his win two weeks ago. He has had five more top 20 finishes in 2022 and also had a win in the fall.
With three wins in the last 15 months, Homa is becoming one of the better players in the game as he nears the top of the leaderboard. We haven’t seen him in a field of this caliber, but he’s won at Riviera and Quail Hollow, which have held majors in the past. This shows that Homa is capable of making it in such places.
We go too Matt Fitzpatrick at +4500. He’s played well all season, finishing in the top 20 in seven places in his nine starts in 2022. Better form was associated with better ball hits. He gains off the tee and continues to gain ground on the approach. He used to be slightly above average in both areas and rode his short game. His short game is still solid, but he now ranks within the top 25 in all four won categories. He has become a more versatile player and that has produced strong results.
The long shots
I have two names here, but let’s start with that Keegan Bradley below +12500 on WynnBet. Wherever a full tee-to-green game is required and where the win is likely to land at 10-under, Bradley can be a factor. He’s finished 11th or better in five of his last seven starts, so the form is there. The reason it was better is because of an uptrend in the short game. He’s now winning shots around the green almost every week and has been above average with the putter in three of his last five starts.
I will too Davis Riley at 200-1 on WynnBet. This is probably more of a top 20 game but its form is really good. He finished ninth last week and has placed in the top 10 in four of his last six starts. He’s had a hot short game in many of those results, but at the Byron Nelson he’s been able to gain ground in all four categories – a promising sign for the Rookie who secured a Tour card for next season.
It doesn’t take much for me to bet on Riley, but like last week I think this could be a point where he’s playing better than the odds suggest.
With my betting in the months leading up to this event, the outrights for the week are pretty much complete. From here we’ll focus on props as they become available and see if anything else catches our eye.
The PGA Championship Card
- Matthew Fitzpatrick +4500 (0.66 units)
- Max Homa +6600 (0.5 units)
- Keegan Bradley +12500 (0.3 units)
- Davis Riley +20000 (0.1 units)
Total bet: 1.56 units