Celtics vs Warriors odds, tips and predictions tonight

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Celtics vs Warriors NBA Finals Game 1 Picks and Predictions: Warriors Come Out to Play

The 2022 NBA Finals begins in San Francisco, where the Golden State Warriors host the Boston Celtics in Game 1 of the championship series on Thursday.

Golden State waited a while to see what their Eastern counterpart would come after the Western Conference Finals concluded on May 26. Boston again needed seven games to progress and will have three full days off to travel, rest and prepare ahead of Game 1, getting 3.5 points on the road.

Check out our free NBA picks and predictions for Celtics at Warriors June 2nd.

Celtics vs Warriors Game 1 Odds

This odds widget represents the best available odds for every betting market from regulated sports betting providers.

Bookmakers opened Golden State as a 3.5-point home favorite for Game 1, with that spread briefly jumping to -4 before returning to -3.5 (-112) in some trades. The total hit the board at 211.5 points, falling to 210.5 before returning to the original number.

Use the live odds widget above to follow all future line movement down to the tip, and be sure to check full NBA odds before betting to ensure you’re getting the best number.

Celtics vs Warriors game 1 predictions

Predictions were made on 5/31/2022 at 2:00 PM ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Celtics vs Warriors game 1 information

location: Tracking Center, San Francisco, CA
date: Thursday, June 2, 2022
tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ABC

Celtics vs Warriors NBA Finals Odds

Celts: +130
Warrior: -150

Celtics vs Warriors Game 1 Betting Preview

key breaches

Celts: No injuries to report.
Warrior: Gary Payton II PG (probable), Otto Porter Jr. F (debatable), Andre Iguodala SF (debatable), James Wiseman C (out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports here.

to know the betting trend

The Warriors are 24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 home games against a team with a winning record. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Warriors.

Celtics vs Warriors Game 1 tips and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based on our analysis of the line and total score in that game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread Analysis

The Celtics have shown great heart and ability to win away from home in the playoffs, but I’m a bit confused when it comes to the Game 1 distribution. Before I even dive into the essentials between these two clubs, there are obvious edges in this opener for the Warriors right on the surface.

Golden State has the residual advantage after completing the West Finals in five games and is a healthier team overall in terms of its main rotation. The dubs have the experience edge that comes into the series with a crowd of veteran players who aren’t blinded by the bright lights of the finals. And in at least the first two games, the Warriors have home field advantage as the Celtics cross country and face a Chase Center crowd that rivals old Oracle Arena in terms of volatility this postseason.

All those angles and edges add up to only 3.5 points?

When the Celtics flip home court in the Finals, Game 1 is the place to be. After back-to-back grueling seven-game streaks that took their toll on the C’s standouts, Thursday is quite possibly the healthiest we’ve seen this Boston team since the Bucks fight.

While I think this Game 1 spread should be more in the region of Warriors -5.5, I could see the odds makers giving the Celtics a shot given how well they played away (7- 2 SU and 8-1 ATS). and the fact that key players like Marcus Smart and Robert Williams have had time to recover a little from nagging injuries.

Aside from those superficial factors, however, Golden State has more ways to win, or at least can make easier adjustments when its bread-and-butter methods don’t work.

Boston needs young stars Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown to face the challenge each night against a defense almost as tight as their own. Let’s not forget that the focus of Steve Kerr’s 2021-2022 season is on defense, with the Dubs sitting just behind the Celtics in defensive ratings in the regular season.

Kerr could have three key defensive figures back for the Finals in Gary Payton Jr., Otto Porter and Andre Iguodala on his way back and place them alongside stalwart starters Draymond Green, Kevin Looney and Andrew Wiggins. That’s a lot of fresh-legged defenders to throw at the Celtics stars.

The Warriors have a deep advantage over Boston, something Miami also possessed in the East Finals before Tyler Herro was injured and Kyle Lowry’s complaints rendered him useless. Golden State still relies on Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson to lead the charge but has capable backup players like Wiggins and Jordan Poole who can take over a game if the vets are having a bad night.

Boston’s last two opponents depended on a main source of buckets and didn’t have a consistent second goalscorer to share the load. Giannis Antetokounmpo was missing the injured Khris Middleton and Jimmy Butler had no choice but to score 40 points a night to keep the Heat alive. However, the warriors have options – not just who scores, but how they score.

The Bucks and Heat posted assist percentages of just 51.4% and 54.5% against Boston, with Antetokounmpo and Butler getting the ball and everyone else watching. With plenty of ball movement and off-basketball action, Golden State lets you bust your ass on defense, leaning on screens and cuts to a playoff-best assist ratio of 66.9%. The points can come from anywhere.

This is the final game the league wanted, the fans wanted and the bettors wanted. Hopefully it lives up to the hype and doesn’t follow the path of the blowout games we’ve seen this postseason. Boston has its best shot at stealing an away win in Game 1, but I have a feeling we’re getting a discount on the dubs at -3.5.

forecast: Warrior -3.5 (-110 at PointsBet)

Includes NBA betting analysis

Over/Under Analysis

Perhaps the biggest factor in this series will depend on which team can get rid of their chronic case of “butter fingers” first.

The Celtics and Warriors were plagued by turnover problems throughout the playoffs, with Boston spitting out the ball 15.3 times per game in the East Finals for 17.1 points against off turnovers. Golden State wasn’t that bad against the Mavericks in the West Finals, but he spat the ball 18.2 times per contest against Memphis in the conference semifinals, costing him 20.3 points per game.

These turnovers can convert into easy points at the other end, but they can also hamper the team’s overall offensive flow. When both sides trade turnover issues in Game 1, they cancel each other out on the scoreboard but give under-bettors the advantage of disrupting the scoring rhythm of two teams that can get hot.

Golden State won’t have as easy a time shooting buckets against Boston as they did against Dallas, who protected the perimeter but gave the Warriors pretty clean air inside with no real rim protection. Williams serves as the inside goalkeeper for the Cs, using his length and athleticism to switch shots and secure defensive rebounds. Golden State, which had a 58.9% effective field goal percentage last series, also owned the offensive boards and added 14.4 second chance points per game against Dallas.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Golden State comes out stale early in Game 1. While the Warriors have the residual advantage, this can sometimes leave a team rusty or passive – especially when dealing with an enemy fresh from the intensity of a do-or-die game.

As we’ve seen from Golden State so far, this offense takes some time to get going (54.4 1H points vs. 60.1 2H points). As for the Celtics, nervousness at the NBA Finals and a feel-out of that dubs defense could also keep points low in the first 12-24 minutes. That sets the table for supporters who may feel a bit uncomfortable in the second half when things get going again.

forecast: Under 211.5 (-110 at PointsBet)

best bid

While things obviously seem stacked against Boston in terms of calm, experience and venue, this Celtics team is perfectly capable of stealing a Game 1 win on the road. I just don’t think it will.

Golden State is a perfect 9-0 SU at Chase Center this postseason and owns a 40-10 overall record for the year in front of Bay Area fans. Sure, the Celtics suffered one of those home losses in March, but Curry was injured in the second quarter and Wiggins was also out.

Maybe it’s just memory or individual betting patterns, but I often bet the Warriors money line instead of putting the points when the spread throws me a curveball. And as mentioned, in Game 1, that line appears to be about two points lower than expected.

As it stands the Dubs are not a good pick for scoring as a short favorite as they only score 7-5-1 ATS this year when giving -3.5 or less. However, they are 9-4 SU in these tight contests. We saw that bubble as a 2.5-point road chalk in Game 1 vs. Memphis: a 117-116 win that saw me pass the point spread and stick to Golden State’s money line.

We’ll be doing the same thing on Thursday, looking for the lowest overall winning rates on the home team and hoping for an exciting start to the NBA Finals.

Choose: Warriors Moneyline (-160 at PointsBet)

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