The Boston Celtics are about to enter the NBA Finals. Standing in their way is a Miami Heat team that looks ready for the end of their season. Watch us beat the heat and back up Jaylen Brown’s hot hand with our Game 6 player prop picks.
Jayson Tatum’s near triple-double and Al Horford’s efficiency propelled the Boston Celtics to the brink of the NBA Finals on Wednesday, helped of course by Jaylen Brown’s hot shooting. Most importantly, the Miami Heat’s offense continued to stutter.
Credit where credit is due: The Celtics had the best defense in the NBA in 2022, and it shows in these Eastern Conference Finals. Betting on this at home could be a key to turning a profit tonight when we bring you our NBA player prop picks for Game 6…
Heat vs. Celtics game 6 prop picks
Click on each selection to jump to the full analysis. Everyone Quota widget below represents that best available odds for every betting market from regulated US sports bookmakers.
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Heat vs Celtics game 6 props
No buts to that
you watched right? Miami has averaged 98.2 points this series, up 81.0 points in the last two games. Remove Game 1 from the math – when neither Marcus Smart nor Al Horford were available for Boston – and that series-long average drops to 93.25. It’s sensible, obvious, and necessary to find ways to fade this insult now, the last of those adjectives, simply because this should be our last chance.
Jimmy Butler has been at the heart of the problem lately. After scoring 41 points in that Game 1 win, he has only scored 27 points in the last three games, going 10 of 40 from the field and 1 of 7 from deep.
If Butler is hurt, he will never admit it. He’s not even listed in Miami’s extensive injury report. Butler will act out any discomfort for as long as he can, and he’ll kill the Heat in the process.
However, his total score for Over/Under remains above 22 points. How anyone expects Butler to do more than a quarter of Miami’s total is a confusion we won’t waste time on. Rather, we will benefit from it.
SELECT: Jimmy Butler under 22.5 points (-110)
Includes NBA betting analysis
This is less a shot at Bam Adebayo and more a shot at Miami’s entire offense. If anyone in the Heat deserves this series it’s Adebayo. The agile center averaged 14.8 points and 7.8 rebounds per game as the Heat struggled otherwise.
Then why let him fade away? Because the intent is to fade all aspects of Miami’s offense, but that offense was so terrible, books offer few player props to exploit. As of Friday’s early hours, point supports are common only for Adebayo, Butler and PJ Tucker. No Tyler Herro (really questionable), no Kyle Lowry (questionable but also 1-of-12 in last two games), no Max Strus (also questionable but also 0-of-16 in last two games).
Fading Tucker’s 7.5 points is a risk, both because the total is so low and the payout is -124 at best. Fading Adebayo’s 16.5 points is a risk because if anyone can top a total in the heat tonight it’s him.
But his 2.5-assist prop? With positive money? That would depend on other Miami players actually taking shots.
Remove Adebayo’s 32 of 52 in this series and the rest of the Heat shoots 37.95%. In the last four games – again without Game 1 and the absence of Smart and Horford – that figure drops to 35.67%. In the last two 29.88 percent.
Miami doesn’t even make three out of ten non-Adebayo shots. So to top that support, you might expect Adebayo to dish out 11 shot opportunities.
Additionally, he has only surpassed 2.5 assists once in the last seven games on the Heat. Even with Game 3’s six assists, Adebayo is averaging just 2.4 assists per game this series. In other words, he’s averaging 1.5 assists per game in the other four.
Betting he doesn’t get a third assist can be made with positive odds though.
SELECT: Bam Adebayo Under 2.5 Assists (+112)
What can Braun do for you?
Boston wants to end that streak tonight. Returning to South Beach for a Game 7 would be a moment of suspense the Celtics need to avoid to improve their next-round chances against the Warriors. Boston knows that. The fans know that. Ime Udoka knows that.
So when the Celtics get rolling, Udoka will step on the gas. He will not slack off late to rest his stars. He’ll steel against Miami’s grit until Erik Spoelstra waves a white flag that would match Tyler Herro’s sideline fit.
The biggest threat to Jaylen Brown not raining threesomes again isn’t his shot. It would be Udoka who pulled him into a run early on. A clinch game reduces this risk.
Brown has caught at least four shots from beyond the arc in three of the five games in this series, shooting 43.6% from deep. Still, he’s up for grabs at +140 if he does it again.
Perhaps Brown is cooling off, but he’s hit 39.6% of his three-pointers this postseason while shooting 6.6 per game. With a sample size of 16 games, these aren’t the numbers of a player who would be expected to be on the verge of cooling off.
And on a night when Udoka Brown should be playing through the proverbial tape, he gets a few extra chances to throw.
SELECT: Jaylen Brown Over 3.5 Threes (+140)
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