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All odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
What you need to know for Game 6 of the NBA Finals
Stephen fights: Stephen Curry didn’t make a 3-pointer in Monday’s Game 5 win for the first time in his postseason career. That’s unlikely to happen again, and we even got to see the superhuman Steph in Game 6. The last time he failed three 3s in a game was Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals. He responded in his next game with six 3s in the first quarter of the NBA Finals earlier this month.
X factor: In addition to leading the Celtics in the second half of this series, Marcus Smart has influenced the team in other ways that should help them in this win-or-go-home Game 6. He has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.8 on wins, more than double his loss ratio (1.3) last month. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are drawing the most attention, but the Finals are unlikely to return to San Francisco without Smart giving the Celtics a strong effort.
– Kyle Soppe
Break down game 6
Golden State Warriors with the Boston Celtics
9 p.m. ET, TD Garden, Boston
line: Celtics (-4)
money line: Celts (-170), Warriors (+145)
In total: 210 points
BPI forecast sum: 222.4 points
BPI Profit %: Celts (68.8%)
Remarkable: Unders are 8-5 in Boston’s last 13 overall wins.
Best bet: Andrew Wiggins under 18.5 points: Andrew Wiggins was amazing in Game 5, but none of those stats will help redeem tickets in Game 6. Wiggins scored 26 points and led Warriors shots (23) because Stephen Curry had an off night. It’s hard to predict that the same use in Game 6 as Wiggins’ scoring upside is more limited than you might think. He has played 192 minutes in that streak and attempted just 13 free throws while missing 21 of 28 3-point attempts. He conceded tickets in Game 5 by shooting 12 of 17 from within the 3-point line, something unlikely to happen again with increased focus from arguably the best defense in the NBA. — soup
Best bet: Marcus Smart over 5.5 assists. Smart has 22 assists and just three turnovers in three elimination games this postseason. His usage rate is as high as it has been all season and being at home is never a bad thing for assist count. Smart averaged fewer shots and more assists at home than away in the regular season. – Soup
Best bet: Over 210 points. This is the lowest total in the series, which I believe is a price that represents value based on what happened in Game 5. Points range on Monday. Golden State’s 22% and Boston’s 34% performances were the worst long-range shooting performances for either team in that series. The Celtics missed 10 free throws and made just 75 shots overall, their fourth-worst performance in 23 postseason games. Despite what I just mentioned, we still got 198 total points. I believe better shooting performance is on the horizon, so I like the idea of a half unit bet on the over. — Joe Fortenbaugh
Best bet: Stephen Curry over 28.5 points. Curry should recover strongly in Game 6. He ended Game 5 0-9 from a 3-point range. Curry hasn’t hit a 3-pointer in a game since 2013, averaging 4.4 3-pointers and a 46% 3-point percentage in the following game. These include his 13 3s against the New Orleans Pelicans in 2016. – Eric Moody
Best bet: Jayson Tatum over 3.5 turnovers. Tatum has offensively carried the load for the Celtics this postseason, but he’s also averaged 4.1 turnovers per game. Tatum has committed 95 turnovers in the playoffs, surpassing LeBron James’ mark in 2018. — moody
Best bet: Klay Thompson over 20.5 points, 3.5 3 points. Thompson has been fickle this series, but when he’s caught, he’s unstoppable. Thompson has had quite a few Game 6 performances over the course of his career, and there’s one more to come. He averaged 20.7 PPG in 12 career games and shot 44.6% from the field and 49.5% from off the arc. Expect the Warriors to be aggressive and Thompson to show his signature grin a lot. — moody
Best Bet: Jayson Tatum over 41.5 points + assists + rebounds. The Celtics lost back-to-back games for the first time this postseason, a pattern that hasn’t been broken is Tatum’s big games after a loss. He went over 40.5 PAR in Game 5 and I expect he’ll produce even more on the line in Game 6 of the Celtics season. – Andre Snellings
Best bet: Marcus Smart over 15.5 points. I’ve been hammering this for a while and will continue to do so. Smart lost 20 points in Game 5 and has scored at least 18 points in five of his last six games. He has averaged 16.4 PPG over his last 14 games. – Snellings
Best bet: Andrew Wiggins on 7.5 rebounds. Wiggins has become the Warriors’ main rebounder in this series with 29 boards in the last two games. Golden State finds success playing small balls, with either Draymond Green or Kevon Looney on the five and Wiggins smashing the glass on the four. Wiggins is at the peak of his role, showing the incredible athleticism that made him the No. 1 pick in the 2014 NBA draft. I expect another strong effort on the boards in Game 6. – Snellings
