Should the Avalanche be worried about going against the Blues in Game 6?

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Should the Avalanche be worried about going against the Blues in Game 6?

Shortly after a devastating overtime loss on Wednesday, Nathan MacKinnon described the prospect of going to St. Louis for Game 6 as “a huge challenge” but said he and his teammates are looking forward to it. The Avalanche still has two chances to pick up the one win needed to send them to the Western Conference Finals, the first of which takes place on Friday.

None of this makes the team’s collapse in Game 5 any more understandable, but MacKinnon thinks the Avalanche can learn from it. And they must do it, or the loss might haunt them for a long time.

“That should make our team a little bit tougher and braver in those situations,” MacKinnon said.

There were many worrying signs for the Avalanche in Game 5, in which they lost a 3-0 second lead and a 4-3 lead with less than a minute left on rule. But there was also reason to believe Colorado could still beat the Blues.

Let’s go through five of each.

Reason for concern: game by Darcy Kuemper

The Avalanche gave up much to acquire Kuemper, sending a first-round pick and Conor Timmins to Arizona this summer in exchange for the Netminder. And while Kuemper was a bright spot for the Avalanche in the regular season, he had his worst game of the playoffs against St. Louis in Game 5, at least according to Evolving-Hockey’s “Goals Saved Above Expectations” metric. According to the website, he allowed 1.82 more goals than expected and coughed up expensive rebounds. In a game decided in overtime, that will come back to bite you.

Avalanche coach Jared Bednar acknowledged Kuempers’ tough night but said he was far from the only Avalanche player to have underperformed.

“You can assign him to our team,” said the coach. “We weren’t good enough, especially in the third period.”

Kuemper has a negative GSAx in four out of five games in this series. That’s a problematic trend he needs to fix if Colorado is to become a championship team. But it doesn’t shake Bednar’s belief that he’s the team’s best shot at winning, which makes sense given his success for most of the season. When asked if he would consider playing in Game 6 with Pavel Francouz, Bednar replied simply.

“No.”

Reason for Optimism: Playoff Nathan MacKinnon

MacKinnon did just about everything in his power to help Colorado secure a win on Wednesday. He had four points, a hat trick and arguably the best goal of the entire postseason. The Blues had limited the Colorado star to three assists in the first four games of the series, but he found a groove in Game 5. St. Louis had no answer. And although MacKinnon was disappointed after Wednesday’s defeat, he exuded confidence.

“We have to keep our game going and stay aggressive,” he said. “We’ll do that on Friday.”

MacKinnon has as many as 82 career playoff points in 59 games. He crossed the 80-point barrier in Game 5 and tied Sidney Crosby for the fourth fewest games required to reach the mark. Only Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux and Jari Kurri scored 80 points faster.

Reason for concern: Robert Thomas is getting going

Thomas, 22, had a strong season for St. Louis, amassing 77 points in 72 games. But he hadn’t found his game early in these playoffs, failing to score and providing just three assists in the Blues’ first 10 games.

That changed in the third period of Game 5. Thomas scored twice, including the equalizer with 56 seconds left. Vladimir Tarasenko also scored. The Avalanche had previously knocked out both players, but if they choose the Blues, St. Louis will be a lot harder to beat.

Reason for optimism: Improved penalty shootout (at least in four-on-five)

Colorado went 3-for-3 in Wednesday’s penalty shootout, a big improvement from Game 4 in which the Blues had two power-play goals in the second period. Bednar said the team made adjustments at halftime that night and those tweaks appear to have worked.

“The PK knew that we had to get better,” said Darren Helm, who played almost four minutes short on Wednesday. “I watched a bit more videos and prepared a little differently. Boys give it their all, sacrifice their bodies, block shots. We need that to move forward.”

However, Colorado struggled as the Blues pulled their goalie and failed to get the puck out of the defensive zone at five for six, resulting in Thomas scoring the winning goal.

Cause for Concern: Inability to put games down

Colorado held a three-goal lead in Game 4 but allowed the Blues to reduce it to a head in the third period. Even in Game 1, which the Avalanche won in overtime, Colorado failed to convert a plethora of scoring chances and generally beat the Blues.

Then on Wednesday it collapsed. Whether it’s deviating from their game or pushing the Blues, Colorado’s inability to put games down is why the series is still going strong.

Reason for optimism: street success in these playoffs

The Avalanche were a good road team in these playoffs, winning all four non-ball arena contests. Last-line-change-at-home coaches might also be less important than in other series, considering Bednar and Blues coach Craig Berube mostly played their top lines against each other.

“That’s in the past, but obviously we’ve had some success there,” MacKinnon said of playing in St. Louis. “We definitely need a better effort for a full 60.”

Reason for concern: Absence of Samuel Girard

Girard fractured his sternum after suffering a hit from Ivan Barbashev in Game 3. He’s eliminated for the playoffs and that’s having a trickle-down effect on the entire lineup. Jack Johnson is now having to take some of the 20 minutes a game that Girard played, and while he had a good Avalanche postseason debut in Game 4, he had a minus 1 rating in Game 5 and the Avalanche only scored 38 .16 percent of Tor’s expected power share with him on the ice at five against five, per Natural Stat trick. He also played five minutes less than the nearest defender, which doesn’t exude confidence from Bednar.

Bowen Byram, on the other hand, has looked good with more responsibility. The Avalanche scored nearly 80 percent of expected goals while on the ice.

Reason for optimism: Good after losses

Colorado makes a point of not losing two games in a row. For the most part this season, the team has been able to avoid that.

After a three-game losing streak in the preseason in October, Colorado has only lost more than a game five times in a row this season. Two of those opportunities occurred last month as the Avalanche players rested in preparation for the postseason. Girard aside, Colorado has a healthy roster, and a team with this level of talent shouldn’t lose three straight.

Reason for concern: experience

The blues know how to win. A good portion of their roster won the Stanley Cup in 2019, but some of their other signings also have championship pedigrees. Deadline acquisition Nick Leddy won the cup with Chicago, as did Brandon Saad. When they had their backs to the wall in Game 5, they didn’t flinch. This makes them difficult to eliminate.

Reason for optimism: Colorado has been the better team so far

This statement applies to both the regular season and the playoffs. The Avalanche finished the regular season with 10 more points overall and outplayed St. Louis for most of that series. After all, the Avalanche lead 3-2.

Check out these five-versus-five numbers, all about Natural Stat Trick:

  • Colorado has 57.74 percent of the expected goal share
  • Colorado had 61.84 percent scoring chances
  • Colorado had 59.74 percent of high-risk scoring chances

If the Avalanche play the way they played their first five games, they can essentially shut down St. Louis. If their game slips, things could get dicey, as evidenced by Game 5’s collapse.

(Photo: Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)

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Should the Avalanche be worried about going against the Blues in Game 6?

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Should the Avalanche be worried about going against the Blues in Game 6?

Shortly after a devastating overtime loss on Wednesday, Nathan MacKinnon described the prospect of going to St. Louis for Game 6 as “a huge challenge” but said he and his teammates are looking forward to it. The Avalanche still has two chances to pick up the one win needed to send them to the Western Conference Finals, the first of which takes place on Friday.

None of this makes the team’s collapse in Game 5 any more understandable, but MacKinnon thinks the Avalanche can learn from it. And they must do it, or the loss might haunt them for a long time.

“That should make our team a little bit tougher and braver in those situations,” MacKinnon said.

There were many worrying signs for the Avalanche in Game 5, in which they lost a 3-0 second lead and a 4-3 lead with less than a minute left on rule. But there was also reason to believe Colorado could still beat the Blues.

Let’s go through five of each.

Reason for concern: game by Darcy Kuemper

The Avalanche gave up much to acquire Kuemper, sending a first-round pick and Conor Timmins to Arizona this summer in exchange for the Netminder. And while Kuemper was a bright spot for the Avalanche in the regular season, he had his worst game of the playoffs against St. Louis in Game 5, at least according to Evolving-Hockey’s “Goals Saved Above Expectations” metric. According to the website, he allowed 1.82 more goals than expected and coughed up expensive rebounds. In a game decided in overtime, that will come back to bite you.

Avalanche coach Jared Bednar acknowledged Kuempers’ tough night but said he was far from the only Avalanche player to have underperformed.

“You can assign him to our team,” said the coach. “We weren’t good enough, especially in the third period.”

Kuemper has a negative GSAx in four out of five games in this series. That’s a problematic trend he needs to fix if Colorado is to become a championship team. But it doesn’t shake Bednar’s belief that he’s the team’s best shot at winning, which makes sense given his success for most of the season. When asked if he would consider playing in Game 6 with Pavel Francouz, Bednar replied simply.

“No.”

Reason for Optimism: Playoff Nathan MacKinnon

MacKinnon did just about everything in his power to help Colorado secure a win on Wednesday. He had four points, a hat trick and arguably the best goal of the entire postseason. The Blues had limited the Colorado star to three assists in the first four games of the series, but he found a groove in Game 5. St. Louis had no answer. And although MacKinnon was disappointed after Wednesday’s defeat, he exuded confidence.

“We have to keep our game going and stay aggressive,” he said. “We’ll do that on Friday.”

MacKinnon has as many as 82 career playoff points in 59 games. He crossed the 80-point barrier in Game 5 and tied Sidney Crosby for the fourth fewest games required to reach the mark. Only Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux and Jari Kurri scored 80 points faster.

Reason for concern: Robert Thomas is getting going

Thomas, 22, had a strong season for St. Louis, amassing 77 points in 72 games. But he hadn’t found his game early in these playoffs, failing to score and providing just three assists in the Blues’ first 10 games.

That changed in the third period of Game 5. Thomas scored twice, including the equalizer with 56 seconds left. Vladimir Tarasenko also scored. The Avalanche had previously knocked out both players, but if they choose the Blues, St. Louis will be a lot harder to beat.

Reason for optimism: Improved penalty shootout (at least in four-on-five)

Colorado went 3-for-3 in Wednesday’s penalty shootout, a big improvement from Game 4 in which the Blues had two power-play goals in the second period. Bednar said the team made adjustments at halftime that night and those tweaks appear to have worked.

“The PK knew that we had to get better,” said Darren Helm, who played almost four minutes short on Wednesday. “I watched a bit more videos and prepared a little differently. Boys give it their all, sacrifice their bodies, block shots. We need that to move forward.”

However, Colorado struggled as the Blues pulled their goalie and failed to get the puck out of the defensive zone at five for six, resulting in Thomas scoring the winning goal.

Cause for Concern: Inability to put games down

Colorado held a three-goal lead in Game 4 but allowed the Blues to reduce it to a head in the third period. Even in Game 1, which the Avalanche won in overtime, Colorado failed to convert a plethora of scoring chances and generally beat the Blues.

Then on Wednesday it collapsed. Whether it’s deviating from their game or pushing the Blues, Colorado’s inability to put games down is why the series is still going strong.

Reason for optimism: street success in these playoffs

The Avalanche were a good road team in these playoffs, winning all four non-ball arena contests. Last-line-change-at-home coaches might also be less important than in other series, considering Bednar and Blues coach Craig Berube mostly played their top lines against each other.

“That’s in the past, but obviously we’ve had some success there,” MacKinnon said of playing in St. Louis. “We definitely need a better effort for a full 60.”

Reason for concern: Absence of Samuel Girard

Girard fractured his sternum after suffering a hit from Ivan Barbashev in Game 3. He’s eliminated for the playoffs and that’s having a trickle-down effect on the entire lineup. Jack Johnson is now having to take some of the 20 minutes a game that Girard played, and while he had a good Avalanche postseason debut in Game 4, he had a minus 1 rating in Game 5 and the Avalanche only scored 38 .16 percent of Tor’s expected power share with him on the ice at five against five, per Natural Stat trick. He also played five minutes less than the nearest defender, which doesn’t exude confidence from Bednar.

Bowen Byram, on the other hand, has looked good with more responsibility. The Avalanche scored nearly 80 percent of expected goals while on the ice.

Reason for optimism: Good after losses

Colorado makes a point of not losing two games in a row. For the most part this season, the team has been able to avoid that.

After a three-game losing streak in the preseason in October, Colorado has only lost more than a game five times in a row this season. Two of those opportunities occurred last month as the Avalanche players rested in preparation for the postseason. Girard aside, Colorado has a healthy roster, and a team with this level of talent shouldn’t lose three straight.

Reason for concern: experience

The blues know how to win. A good portion of their roster won the Stanley Cup in 2019, but some of their other signings also have championship pedigrees. Deadline acquisition Nick Leddy won the cup with Chicago, as did Brandon Saad. When they had their backs to the wall in Game 5, they didn’t flinch. This makes them difficult to eliminate.

Reason for optimism: Colorado has been the better team so far

This statement applies to both the regular season and the playoffs. The Avalanche finished the regular season with 10 more points overall and outplayed St. Louis for most of that series. After all, the Avalanche lead 3-2.

Check out these five-versus-five numbers, all about Natural Stat Trick:

  • Colorado has 57.74 percent of the expected goal share
  • Colorado had 61.84 percent scoring chances
  • Colorado had 59.74 percent of high-risk scoring chances

If the Avalanche play the way they played their first five games, they can essentially shut down St. Louis. If their game slips, things could get dicey, as evidenced by Game 5’s collapse.

(Photo: Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)

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